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The Scenarios that Shape Future Economic Impacts of Climate
Speaker: Dr. Lim, Dong-Soon, Korea Institute of Industrial Economics and Trade Outline of the presentation 1.The five areas that will shape future impacts –Economic growth and industrial change, Population, Energy and GHG, Land-use, Climate –Analysis process to create future trajectory of each areas –Examples of international institutes, other forecasting agencies, past works –Comparative benchmarks that show range, change, growth, and composition –Role and special characteristics in establishing scenarios 2.Process for establishing scenarios –Review other examples including institutes, agencies, scientific literatures, expertise insights –Estimate 1st forecast with various methodologies including consensus economic approach, time-series extension, delphi, etc. –Integrate expert group discussions –Draft a set of scenarios 3.The forecasts for scenarios until 2100
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